张枢 Shu Zhang

Net-zero energy transition is projected to accelerate the replacement of fossil fuels with renewables, leaving system flexibility resources increasingly scarce. Here, we present a sub-annual energy-environment-economy model with endogenous hourly energy demand profiles and power balance dynamics including power dispatch, storage operations and demand-side response that co-optimizes supply- and demand-side flexibility, to map feasible transition pathways for China. The results show that compared with coarser timeslice representative of common modelling practice, sub-annual representation tightening flexibility needs with a high variable renewable energy and high electrification energy system. Results reveal steeper load ramps and frequent evening price strikes, identify increased activities in thermal power, nuclear power, hydrogen production, and energy storage. Accounting for temporal variability in supply and demand, the cost-optimal solution exhibits marginal abatement costs that are over 9% higher, but incorporating demand-side flexibility measures can mitigate cost growth and delineates least-regret portfolios for reliable, affordable decarbonization. Incentives for demand-side response such as load time-shifting and vehicle-to-grid can reduce investment in pumped hydro by 23% and yield more than a threefold cost-benefit ratio. The study highlights enhanced modelling of temporal dynamics within future energy model development and incentive-compatible market mechanism design for dispatchable resource development.

The global net-zero transition needed to combat climate change may have profound effects on the energy–food–water–air quality nexus. Accomplishing the net-zero target while addressing other environmental challenges to achieve sustainable development is a policy pursuit for all. Here we develop a multi-model interconnection assessment framework to explore and quantify the co-benefits and trade-offs of climate action for environment-related sustainable development goals in China. We find that China is making progress towards many of the sustainable development goals, but still insufficiently. The net-zero transition leads to substantial sustainability improvements, particularly in energy and water systems. However, the co-benefits alone cannot ensure a sustainable energy–food–water–air quality system. Moreover, uncoordinated policies may exacerbate threats to energy security and food security as variable renewables and bioenergy expand. We urge the implementation of pragmatic measures to increase incentives for demand management, improve food system efficiency, promote advanced irrigation technology and further strengthen air pollutant control measures.

China’s energy system requires a thorough transformation to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, leveraging the highly acclaimed The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System model of China (China TIMES) that takes energy, the environment, and the economy into consideration, four carbon-neutral scenarios are proposed and compared for different emission peak times and carbon emissions in 2050. The results show that China’s carbon emissions will peak at 10.3–10.4 Gt between 2025 and 2030. In 2050, renewables will account for 60% of total energy consumption (calorific value calculation) and 90% of total electricity generation, and the electrification rate will be close to 60%. The energy transition will bring sustained air quality improvement, with an 85% reduction in local air pollutants in 2050 compared with 2020 levels, and an early emission peak will yield more near-term benefits. Early peak attainment requires the extensive deployment of renewables over the next decade and an accelerated phasing out of coal after 2025. However, it will bring benefits such as obtaining better air quality sooner, reducing cumulative CO2 emissions, and buying more time for other sectors to transition. The pressure for more ambitious emission reductions in 2050 can be transmitted to the near future, affecting renewable energy development, energy service demand, and welfare losses.

A profound transformation of China’s energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technological evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45-62% electrification rate, 47-78% renewable energy in primary energy supply, 5.2-7.9 TW of solar and wind power, 1.5-2.7 PWh of energy storage usage and 64-1,649 MtCO2 of negative emissions, and synergistically reducing approximately 80% of local air pollutants compared to the present level in 2050. The emission peak time and cumulative carbon budget have significant impacts on the decarbonization pathways, technology choices, and transition costs. Early peaking reduces welfare losses and prevents overreliance on carbon removal technologies. Technology breakthroughs, production and consumption pattern changes, and policy enhancement are urgently required to achieve carbon neutrality.