论著/Publications

Journal Articles

1. Material

   Sub-technology Market Share Strongly Affects Critical Material Constraints in Power System Transitions

   Huijuan Dong^* , Tianyu Zhang, Yong Geng , Peng Wang , Shu Zhang, and Joseph Sarkis

   Nature Communications, Feb 2025

   Critical material constraints may limit and guide power system transitions towards net zero. Pathways to mitigate these constraints need to be evaluated and pursued to ensure successful transition. Here, we explore the material constraint mitigation pathways from the perspective of adjusting power generation sub-technology market shares, analysing nineteen critical materials that may cause material constraints. We find that the power generation system transition within China’s carbon neutrality scenario results in 52.2 megatonnes of cumulative material demand by 2060, approximately 2.7 times that of the business-as-usual scenario. Solar photovoltaic and wind power sub-technology market shares have the greatest impact on critical material demand. As progressive thin-film solar cell sub-technologies gain market share, the demand for gallium from solar photovoltaic may increase 56-fold. Material constraints are likely to occur for gallium, terbium, germanium, tellurium, indium, uranium and copper. The importance value is determined by the ratio of power sector to all-sector material demand; the importance value of gallium will increase to 50% due to increases in gallium arsenide and permanent magnet sub-technologies. Our study findings show that sub-technology market shares need to be considered when evaluating future material constraints. Our results provide insights for future research investigating mitigation pathways.

   @article{NC2025,
     author = {Dong, Huijuan and Zhang, Tianyu and Geng, Yong and Wang, Peng and Zhang, Shu and Sarkis, Joseph},
     title = {Sub-technology Market Share Strongly Affects Critical Material Constraints in Power System Transitions},
     journal = {Nature Communications},
     volume = {16},
     number = {1},
     month = feb,
     issn = {2041-1723 (Electronic),2041-1723 (Linking)},
     year = {2025},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     dimensions = {true},
     altmetric = {true}
   }

2. Provincial

   

   中国省区协同的电力系统碳中和转型路径评估（Assessing China’s province-coordinated power system carbon-neutral transition pathway）

   Wenying Chen^* , Shu Zhang , Qiang Zhang, Jinhui Ren, and Qi Ding

   能源与气候变化（Journal of Energy and Climate Change）, Jan 2025

   在应对气候变化和推动绿色发展的背景下，本研究运用中国分省区碳中和转型分析模型China TIMES-30PE，系统模拟了中国各省区在碳中和目标指引下的电力系统转型路径。研究涵盖了从电力生产、调度到输配的全链条，并对实现碳中和转型所需的电源、电网投资进行了分析。研究发现，各省区需立足自身能源资源禀赋持续推进电力部门深度脱碳，，加快低碳转型步伐，尽早实现碳达峰。所有省区电力部门需在2060年贡献负排放，其中吉林、青海、湖北、江西、四川、云南、广西等省份电力系统需在2050年前后实现碳中和。未来光伏、风电与储能装机容量增长迅速，西北、西南、东北地区可再生能源基地快速发展，跨省区电力传输和储能技术在平衡电力供需中发挥关键作用。研究指出经济、安全地实现气候目标需要在国家层面上统筹各省区减排目标的设定，设计鼓励可再生能源资源丰富地区强化减排的激励机制，并通过市场和转移支付手段实现资金向承担更多减排责任的省份转移，以实现区域协同转型。

   @article{JECC2025,
     author = {Chen, Wenying and Zhang, Shu and Zhang, Qiang and Ren, Jinhui and Ding, Qi},
     title = {中国省区协同的电力系统碳中和转型路径评估（Assessing China's province-coordinated power system carbon-neutral transition pathway）},
     journal = {能源与气候变化（Journal of Energy and Climate Change）},
     issn = {2097-4981},
     year = {2025},
     month = jan,
     volume = {1},
     bibtex_show = {true},
   }

3. Provincial

   

   Provincial pathways to carbon-neutral energy systems in China considering interprovincial electricity transmission development

   Qiang Zhang , Shu Zhang, and Wenying Chen^*

   Applied Energy, Dec 2024

   

   Achieving China’s ambitious carbon neutrality goal requires tangible action by the provinces. Significant heterogeneities between provinces make for divergent transition paths and different contributions to climate goals. To portray the dynamics of the energy transition at the provincial level, this study develops a China’s provincial energy-environment-economic model (China TIMES-30PE) with special consideration of the interprovincial electricity transmission. To achieve carbon peaking, it is necessary to raise the carbon intensity reduction target on the basis of the 13th Five-Year Plan and enable rapid emission reductions through non-fossil energy expansion, end-use electrification, and the hydrogen boom to achieve carbon neutrality. Renewable energy and energy storage growth is concentrated in West, but electricity demand is growing rapidly in the East, creating a clear mismatch and making inter-provincial transmission and grid needs steeper. The central provinces shift from electricity exporters to electricity importers in future energy system landscape. By 2060, China is expected to form several major inter-regional power transmission routes from Northwest China to the Yangtze River Delta and Central China, from Inner Mongolia to Shandong, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Henan, from Sichuan to the Yangtze River Delta, and from Yunnan to Guangdong. Driven by large-scale long-distance transmission, the capacity of ultra-high voltage lines is expected to increase rapidly.

   @article{AE2024,
     author = {Zhang, Qiang and Zhang, Shu and Chen, Wenying},
     title = {Provincial pathways to carbon-neutral energy systems in China considering interprovincial electricity transmission development},
     journal = {Applied Energy},
     issn = {0306-2619},
     altmetric = {true},
     year = {2024},
     month = dec,
     volume = {375},
     pages = {123953},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     dimensions = {true},
     doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123953},
     google_scholar_id = {roLk4NBRz8UC}
   }

4. SDG

   

   Targeting net-zero emissions while advancing other sustainable development goals in China

   Shu Zhang, Wenying Chen^* , Qiang Zhang, Volker Krey^*, Edward Byers, Peter Rafaj, Binh Nguyen, Muhammad Awais, and Keywan Riahi

   Nature Sustainability, Jul 2024

   

   🔥ESI Hot Paper, 🌟Featured paper in Nature Sustainability

   The global net-zero transition needed to combat climate change may have profound effects on the energy–food–water–air quality nexus. Accomplishing the net-zero target while addressing other environmental challenges to achieve sustainable development is a policy pursuit for all. Here we develop a multi-model interconnection assessment framework to explore and quantify the co-benefits and trade-offs of climate action for environment-related sustainable development goals in China. We find that China is making progress towards many of the sustainable development goals, but still insufficiently. The net-zero transition leads to substantial sustainability improvements, particularly in energy and water systems. However, the co-benefits alone cannot ensure a sustainable energy–food–water–air quality system. Moreover, uncoordinated policies may exacerbate threats to energy security and food security as variable renewables and bioenergy expand. We urge the implementation of pragmatic measures to increase incentives for demand management, improve food system efficiency, promote advanced irrigation technology and further strengthen air pollutant control measures.

   @article{NS2024,
     author = {Zhang, Shu and Chen, Wenying and Zhang, Qiang and Krey, Volker and Byers, Edward and Rafaj, Peter and Nguyen, Binh and Awais, Muhammad and Riahi, Keywan},
     title = {Targeting net-zero emissions while advancing other sustainable development goals in China},
     journal = {Nature Sustainability},
     year = {2024},
     month = jul,
     issn = {23989629},
     doi = {10.1038/s41893-024-01400-z},
     altmetric = {true},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     volume = {7},
     number = {9},
     pages = {1107–1119},
     dimensions = {true},
     google_scholar_id = {LkGwnXOMwfcC},
     award = {🔥ESI Hot Paper, 🌟Featured paper in Nature Sustainability}
   }

5. CCS

   

   China’s multi-sector-shared CCUS networks in a carbon-neutral vision

   Haotian Tang, Wenying Chen^* , Shu Zhang , and Qianzhi Zhang

   iScience, Apr 2023

   

   Summary China’s carbon-neutral vision necessitates carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), which is still in its infancy due to inadequate infrastructure and indeterminate technology diffusion. To address the concerns, this study links spatially explicit CO2 source-sink matching with bottom-up energy-environment-economy planning to propose China’s multi-sector-shared CCUS networks, with plant-level industrial transfer and infrastructure reuse considered. Nearly 19000-km trunk lines are needed by a capture of 1.74 Gt/yr in 2050, with 12-, 16-, 20-, and 24-inch pipelines enjoying the largest share of over 65%. Inspiringly, some CO2 routes accounting for 50% of the total length match well with the rights-of-way for oil and gas pipeline corridors. Regional cost-competitiveness improvement is observed given available offshore storage, with 0.2 Gt/yr redirected to the northern South China Sea. Furthermore, the interprovincial heterogeneity and intersectoral externality of CCUS scaling-up are unveiled, requiring a rational allocation of benefits and costs inherent in the value chains.

   @article{iScience2023,
     author = {Tang, Haotian and Chen, Wenying and Zhang, Shu and Zhang, Qianzhi},
     title = {China's multi-sector-shared CCUS networks in a carbon-neutral vision},
     journal = {iScience},
     volume = {26},
     number = {4},
     pages = {106347},
     issn = {2589-0042},
     doi = {10.1016/j.isci.2023.106347},
     year = {2023},
     month = apr,
     bibtex_show = {true},
     dimensions = {true},
     altmetric = {true},
     google_scholar_id = {ufrVoPGSRksC},
   }

6. GCAM

   

   China’s industrial decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A sub-sectoral analysis based on integrated modelling

   Tianming Shao, Xunzhang Pan^* , Xiang Li, Sheng Zhou , Shu Zhang, and Wenying Chen

   Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Dec 2022

   

   China’s 2060 carbon neutrality requires the industrial sector to play a leading role in decarbonization. By refining China’s industrial sector into 11 specific subsectors in the Global Change Analysis Model and repre­ senting industrial carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen, this study conducts a sub-sectoral analysis of China’s industrial decarbonization under three carbon neutrality scenarios and explores the potential role of CCS and hydrogen. Regardless of the scenario, the results show that China’s industrial CO2 emissions peak during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with a reduction of about 90% in 2050 compared to 2020; electricity becomes the primary energy for China’s industrial sector by around 2035, with industrial electrification reaching about 64% in 2050, while coal and oil change from fuel to feedstock. Tapping the mitigation potential of cement, steel, and chemical is a fundamental requirement for China’s industrial decarbonization, while further deeper mitigation requires more additional efforts in other subsectors. Cement, steel, and chemical need to reach peak CO2 by the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and together they are responsible for 83–85% of total industrial emissions reductions from 2015 to 2050. An important way to reduce emissions from these three subsectors is to reduce energy consumption. The other industrial subsectors are expected to reach peak CO2 by the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Increasing the electrification rate is a key way to reduce emissions in other subsectors. CCS and hydrogen can play an important role in decarbonizing China’s industrial sector. In the scenarios of this study, the annual deployment of CCS in China’s industrial energy use exceeds 0.3 GtCO2 in 2035–2040, while hydrogen provides 5.2–10.4% of total industrial energy use in 2050.

   @article{RSER2022,
     author = {Shao, Tianming and Pan, Xunzhang and Li, Xiang and Zhou, Sheng and Zhang, Shu and Chen, Wenying},
     title = {China's industrial decarbonization in the context of carbon neutrality: A sub-sectoral analysis based on integrated modelling},
     journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
     volume = {170},
     pages = {112992},
     issn = {13640321},
     doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2022.112992},
     year = {2022},
     month = dec,
     altmetric = {true},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     dimensions = {true},
     google_scholar_id = {YsMSGLbcyi4C},
   }

7. China TIMES

   

   China’s Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision

   Shu Zhang, and Wenying Chen^*

   Engineering, Jul 2022

   

   🏆ESI Highly Cited Paper, 🔥ESI Hot Paper

   China’s energy system requires a thorough transformation to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, leveraging the highly acclaimed The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System model of China (China TIMES) that takes energy, the environment, and the economy into consideration, four carbon-neutral scenarios are proposed and compared for different emission peak times and carbon emissions in 2050. The results show that China’s carbon emissions will peak at 10.3–10.4 Gt between 2025 and 2030. In 2050, renewables will account for 60% of total energy consumption (calorific value calculation) and 90% of total electricity generation, and the electrification rate will be close to 60%. The energy transition will bring sustained air quality improvement, with an 85% reduction in local air pollutants in 2050 compared with 2020 levels, and an early emission peak will yield more near-term benefits. Early peak attainment requires the extensive deployment of renewables over the next decade and an accelerated phasing out of coal after 2025. However, it will bring benefits such as obtaining better air quality sooner, reducing cumulative CO2 emissions, and buying more time for other sectors to transition. The pressure for more ambitious emission reductions in 2050 can be transmitted to the near future, affecting renewable energy development, energy service demand, and welfare losses.

   @article{Engineering2022,
     author = {Zhang, Shu and Chen, Wenying},
     title = {China's Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision},
     journal = {Engineering},
     volume = {14},
     pages = {64-76},
     issn = {20958099},
     doi = {10.1016/j.eng.2021.09.004},
     year = {2022},
     month = jul,
     bibtex_show = {true},
     dimensions = {true},
     altmetric = {true},
     award = {🏆ESI Highly Cited Paper, 🔥ESI Hot Paper},
     google_scholar_id = {W7OEmFMy1HYC},
   }

8. Uncertainty

   

   Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework

   Shu Zhang, and Wenying Chen^*

   Nature Communications, Jan 2022

   

   🏆ESI Highly Cited Paper, 🔥ESI Hot Paper, 🌟Top 25 Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences Articles of 2022

   A profound transformation of China’s energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technological evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45-62% electrification rate, 47-78% renewable energy in primary energy supply, 5.2-7.9 TW of solar and wind power, 1.5-2.7 PWh of energy storage usage and 64-1,649 MtCO2 of negative emissions, and synergistically reducing approximately 80% of local air pollutants compared to the present level in 2050. The emission peak time and cumulative carbon budget have significant impacts on the decarbonization pathways, technology choices, and transition costs. Early peaking reduces welfare losses and prevents overreliance on carbon removal technologies. Technology breakthroughs, production and consumption pattern changes, and policy enhancement are urgently required to achieve carbon neutrality.

   @article{NC2022,
     author = {Zhang, Shu and Chen, Wenying},
     title = {Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework},
     journal = {Nature Communications},
     volume = {13},
     number = {1},
     pages = {87},
     month = jan,
     issn = {2041-1723 (Electronic),2041-1723 (Linking)},
     doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-27671-0},
     year = {2022},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     dimensions = {true},
     google_scholar_id = {Y0pCki6q_DkC},
     altmetric = {true},
     award = {🏆ESI Highly Cited Paper, 🔥ESI Hot Paper, 🌟Top 25 Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences Articles of 2022}
   }

9. CCS

   

   Assessing Representative CCUS Layouts for China’s Power Sector toward Carbon Neutrality

   Haotian Tang , Shu Zhang, and Wenying Chen^*

   Environmental Science & Technology, Jul 2021

   

   China’s carbon neutrality target is building momentum for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), by which the power sector may attain faster decarbonization in the short term. However, an overall CCUS pipeline network blueprint remains poorly understood. This study, for the first time, links the China TIMES model and ChinaCCUS Decision Support System 2.0 to assess representative CCUS layouts for the power sector toward carbon neutrality, with the level of deployment and the maximum transportation distance from emission sources to storage sites considered. The total length of the proposed layouts under the low, medium, and high levels of deployment are about 5100, 18,000, and 37,000 km, with the annum CO2 captures of 0.4, 1.1, and 1.7 Gt, respectively, whereas pipes of medium diameters (12, 16, and 20 in) account for the majority in all three plans. As the deployment rate increases, the layouts generally spread from Northeast, North, and Northwest China to East, South Central, and Southwest China. However, some local exceptions take place considering terrain areas that the pipeline passes through. In addition to engineering guidance, this assessment also illuminates the opportunity for improving the efficiency of CCUS based on carbon pricing.

   @article{EST2021,
     author = {Tang, Haotian and Zhang, Shu and Chen, Wenying},
     title = {Assessing Representative CCUS Layouts for China's Power Sector toward Carbon Neutrality},
     journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
     volume = {55},
     number = {16},
     pages = {11225-11235},
     issn = {1520-5851 (Electronic),0013-936X (Linking)},
     doi = {10.1021/acs.est.1c03401},
     altmetric = {true},
     year = {2021},
     month = jul,
     bibtex_show = {true},
     dimensions = {true},
     google_scholar_id = {2osOgNQ5qMEC},
   }

10. TIMES

    

    Modeling the Rapid Development of Electric Vehicles and Energy Storage Technology Under China Carbon Neutral Scenario Based on China-TIMES Model

    Shu Zhang, and Wenying Chen^*

    Energy proceedings, Dec 2020

    

    With the target of carbon neutrality in 2060, China’s energy system must undergo a huge transformation. Based on the bottom-up energy system model China-TIMES, this paper generates energy consumption, CO2 emissions and technology options for the future deep decarbonization scenario. The model result shows that the peak time of CO2 will significantly affect the emission level in 2050 and will have a crucial impact on the achievement of carbon neutrality. Quantitative analysis indicates electric vehicles and renewable energy will be essential if we hope to accomplish carbon neutrality target. With the rapid development of electric vehicles, the demand for energy storage technology is growing, and the operating mode of energy storage technology will change from charging at night to charging during the day. The coordinated development of electric vehicles, renewable energy and energy storage technology will become a highlight of China’s low carbon transition.

    @article{ICAE2020,
      author = {Zhang, Shu and Chen, Wenying},
      title = {Modeling the Rapid Development of Electric Vehicles and Energy Storage Technology Under China Carbon Neutral Scenario Based on China-TIMES Model},
      journal = {Energy proceedings},
      volume = {10},
      pages = {7202},
      year = {2020},
      month = dec,
      isbn = {978-91-986738-1-4},
      doi = {10.46855/energy-proceedings-7202},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.46855/energy-proceedings-7202},
      altmetric = {true},
      bibtex_show = {true},
      google_scholar_id = {IjCSPb-OGe4C},
    }

11. Load

    

    Load probability density forecasting by transforming and combining quantile forecasts

    Shu Zhang, Yi Wang^* , Yutian Zhang , Dan Wang, and Ning Zhang

    Applied Energy, Nov 2020

    

    Compared with traditional deterministic load forecasting, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) help us understand the potential risks in the power system operation by providing more information about future uncertainties of the loads. Quantile forecasting, as a kind of non-parametric probabilistic forecasting method, has been well developed and widely used in PLF. However, the results of quantile forecasts are discrete, which contain fewer details than density forecasts which provide the most comprehensive information. This paper proposes a novel day-ahead load probability density forecasting method by transforming and combining multiple quantile forecasts. The proposed method includes two main steps: transformation and combination. In the first step, the kernel density estimation method is used to transform the individual quantile forecast into the probability density curve; in the second step, an optimization problem is established to obtain the weighted combination of different probability density forecasts. The perturbation search method is applied to determine the optimal weight of each individual forecast. We demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed method using comprehensive case studies on the real-world load data from Guangdong province in China, ISO New England (ISO-NE) in the US and Irish smart meter data. Case studies show that the combined model is robust to kernel function selection in the transformation step and has better forecasting performance. Compared with the best individual model, the purposed combined model has an accuracy improvement of 1.54% in the Guangdong dataset and 2.9% in the ISO-NE dataset in terms of the continuous ranked probability score. The proposed combination forecasting method can be robust in high volatility scenarios.

    @article{AE2020,
      author = {Zhang, Shu and Wang, Yi and Zhang, Yutian and Wang, Dan and Zhang, Ning},
      title = {Load probability density forecasting by transforming and combining quantile forecasts},
      journal = {Applied Energy},
      volume = {277},
      pages = {115600},
      issn = {03062619},
      doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115600},
      year = {2020},
      month = nov,
      bibtex_show = {true},
      dimensions = {true},
      altmetric = {true},
      google_scholar_id = {u-x6o8ySG0sC},
    }

Technical Reports

1. Multi model

   

   Synthesis Report 2022 on China’s Carbon Neutrality: Electrification in China’s Carbon Neutrality Pathways

   Sha Yu^*, Sha Fu^*, Jenna Behrendt, Qimin Chai , Lingyan Chen, Wenying Chen, Xinzhao Cheng, Leon Clarke, Xuan Du, Fei Guo, Nathan Hultman, Nina Khanna, Volker Krey, Manqi Li, Junling Liu, Hongyou Lu, Jiehong Lou, Chengcheng Mei, Xiao Qin , Ke Wang, Yazhen Wu, Zhuoxiang Yang , Shu Zhang , and Nan Zhou

   Nov 2022

   

   @techreport{EFC2022,
     author = {Yu, Sha and Fu, Sha and Behrendt, Jenna and Chai, Qimin and Chen, Lingyan and Chen, Wenying and Cheng, Xinzhao and Clarke, Leon and Du, Xuan and Guo, Fei and Hultman, Nathan and Khanna, Nina and Krey, Volker and Li, Manqi and Liu, Junling and Lu, Hongyou and Lou, Jiehong and Mei, Chengcheng and Qin, Xiao and Wang, Ke and Wu, Yazhen and Yang, Zhuoxiang and Zhang, Shu and Zhou, Nan},
     title = {Synthesis Report 2022 on China's Carbon Neutrality: Electrification in China’s Carbon Neutrality Pathways},
     publisher = {Energy Foundation China},
     altmetric = {true},
     year = {2022},
     mongth = {12},
     bibtex_show = {true},
     google_scholar_id = {eQOLeE2rZwMC}
   }

Theses

1. Thesis

   

   Assessing the Energy Transition, Synergies and Uncertainties toward Carbon Neutrality in China

   Shu Zhang

   Tsinghua University. in Chinese , May 2024

   🏆Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation of Tsinghua University